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Shipbuilding Warning Index Rises
- Dec 24, 2018 -

It was learned that the early warning index of China's shipbuilding industry boom index rose annually. Since 2018, the shipbuilding market has become weaker and weaker. From January to October, 811 new ships and 61.77 million tonnes of load have been traded globally, a decrease of 1.4% compared with the same period last year. Especially in October, the demand for new vessels was extremely scarce. In the absence of large single support, only 850,000 tonnes of new vessels were traded globally, a significant reduction of 46.9% compared with the previous year, and the lowest trading level was renewed again. On the whole, the development of international economy and trade is not as expected, the downward pressure of China's economy has increased, and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East affect the energy market. The recovery prospects of the international shipping market are facing certain challenges and uncertainties. Therefore, shipowners are generally cautious and their investment in new ships is very limited.


From the point of view of key monitoring indicators, in October 2018, the main sub-indicators of China's shipbuilding industry boom leading index rose and fell two times. Among them, China's shipyards undertook 854,000 tonnes of load, a decrease of 46.9%; the average Clarkson shipping index was 13,661 US dollars per day, a rise of 13.5%; the new shipbuilding price of China index 1118 points, a rise of 0.4%; the foreign trade throughput of major coastal and inland ports was 34,198 Ten thousand tons, down 0.3% from the previous year. The key sub-indicators of China's shipbuilding industry boom synchronization index rose three times and fell one time. Among them, China's shipbuilding completion volume was 230.8 million tons, a decrease of 34.9% annually; shipbuilding export volume was 147.66 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.2% annually; China's shipyards main business income was 27.46 billion yuan, an increase of 54.8% annually; China's shipyards total profit was 116 million yuan, and the annular ratio turned to profit.


Under the combined influence of the above indicators, China's shipbuilding industry boom leading index in October 2018 was 98.6, a decline of 0.2 points annually; China's shipbuilding industry boom synchronization index was 97.3, a rise of 0.2 points annually; China's shipbuilding industry early warning index was 96.3, an increase of 1.4 points annually. Judging from the volume of new ships, in October, new ships from Chinese shipyards received 854,000 tonnes of load, a decrease of 46.9% compared with the previous year. In the future, the excess capacity will be in the digestion stage, together with the emergence of new routes and opportunities, which will be conducive to the production of new orders for ships in batches. In addition, international organizations such as IMO and governments are steadily promoting the landing and implementation of shipping environmental protection policies. The modernization of new design and new ideas will also accelerate the release of demand for ship renewal. It is expected that the early warning index of China's shipbuilding industry will be in the "normal" range in the short term.


New Shipbuilding Price China Index Main Ship Type Price Rises Steadily


In October 2018, the new shipbuilding price index of China rose to 118 points, 5 points higher than the previous year, 102 points higher than the end of last year. Among them, the new shipbuilding prices of bulk carriers and oil tankers are 1361 points and 1205 points respectively, and the ring-to-ring ratio rises by 9 points and 3 points respectively. The China index of new shipbuilding prices for container ships and liquefied petroleum gas vessels is 861 points and 1364 points, respectively, with a ring-to-ring balance.